We have a President-Elect

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The election is over and we have a President-Elect.  Here is a list of my thoughts in regard to the election – in no particular order:

  • Hillary actually won the popular vote: 48% to 47% or 60,839,922 for Hillary versus 60,265,858 for Trump, which is a difference of 574,064. The country is truly split.
  • Trump has no mandate due to the fact that he didn’t win the popular vote even though he clearly beat Hillary in the Electoral College.
  • To me, there were four reasons that Trump did so well – especially with the working class.
    • He captured their anger in both political parties.
    • The White House had just announced an increase in Obamacare costs and many people were already suffering from high premiums and worse medical options. (Bill Clinton’s crazy statement was accurate.)
    • Many voters could not ever vote for Hillary because of her email history that the FBI Director brought front and center ten days before the election even though he once again said there was no indictment coming two days before the election.
    • Hillary did not motivate the core Obama supporters from 2012 – especially the black voters and the hardcore Bernie supporters.
  • In addition, there is a map reason regarding the Electoral College success.  The demographic groups that support a more liberal view such as highly educated men and women, the millennials, Latinos and Asian Americans, as well as African Americans, are highly concentrated in cities, but the rest of the big states have a very different population. The less urban places are usually older and white Americans, many with only a high school degree and those were the ones that were so angry at the current environment. Trump’s words motivated this group to vote in much greater numbers than they had in past elections. Even his threat of a “fixed” election didn’t stop them from turning out to vote which is why a state such as Pennsylvania went for Trump even with the large Philadelphia voting base that was pro-Hillary.
  • The mood around the world seems to be angry at governments – Brexit and Colombia’s rejection of a peace agreement are two examples as well as the rise of Marie Le Pen’s party in France.
  • Trump’s protectionist verbiage if actually translated into policy and implemented by our Congress would be a disaster. No one is being honest with those who have lost their manufacturing jobs that in reality their jobs were only slightly affected by the movement of people. The jobs have basically been overtaken by technology. Hopefully, he will moderate this view and focus more on increasing the level of education of our workers so they can move into the next decades.
  • From people who have been in the room when the first full intelligence briefing is given, there may be a change in Trump’s views. It is a very sobering event. I am hoping his views on NATO and Russia fall into the category of immediate revision.
  • Since Trump likes to negotiate so much, perhaps that bodes well for negotiating on Capitol Hill so some important issues move forward such as a Supreme Court appointment, infrastructure development, tax restructuring to name a few.
  • Trump was a Democrat until four years ago so it will be interesting as to how he works with the Republicans on the Hill. They may control both houses, but the Republican Party is very divided on many issues including trade, Social Security and Medicare restructuring, American involvement in the world, and its role in NATO and how to fight ISIS are some of the dividing issues. If the voters who voted for Trump are expecting a quick change across the board and Trump implementing all of his proposals for jobs  returning to the US, building a wall and having Mexico pay for it, defeating ISIS, they are going to once again be disappointed by their government.
  • I look forward to seeing the Trump cabinet. If he was just being Machiavellian with his hate speech during the election process in order to win, his selection of the people who surrounds him will be inclusive.  

As I have said multiple times over the past year, it is going to be an interesting ride. That sentiment hasn’t changed.

Happy Veterans Day and Happy Birthday Marines!

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